Today the ASX finished down -1.02%. It remains just above a significant horizontal support level and the 50-day Moving Average. Volume today was very heavy - the heaviest since mid-March.
Other major indices today:
- XTL (Twenty Leaders) -1%
- XFL (Fifty Leaders) -0.9%
- XFJ (Financials) -0.5%
- XMJ (Materials) -1.5%
- XSO (Small Ordinaries) -1.5%
The best performing Sector today was Telecommunications +0.7%. That's the second day in a row that the Telecoms have been relatively strong. It's one of the key sectors I've been watching for a market turn signal. More on that at the weekend
Technical Comment on the ASX200 Market:
- The Index is above 50-Day MA but below the 13-Day MA. Neutral.
- Indicators:
- Slow Stochastic 36.1 and below its signal line. Negative
- The 13-Day MA is above the 50-Day MA. Positive
- RSI below its mid-line, now 48. Negative
- MACD Histogram below Zero. Negative.
- CCI -98 and falling. Negative.
- Volume was extremely high.
In the 50-Leaders the ratio for Advancers and Decliners was .29:1 very bearish. This market was held up by a relatively small number of shares today. That's another negative - a big one.
It seems that the Australian market has dislocated from the American market. Or maybe it is just the canary in the coal mine. It's hard to imagine that Australia would go up strongly if the American market falls - and it is extremely overbought at the moment - so falls are probable.
A break below the dual support (horizontal and the 50-Day MA) would be bearish and set up a retracement scenario with a lower high and a lower low. Given the way volume has been increasing the past three days - I think that's the most likely outcome.
Good luck
Red
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