Monday, April 11, 2011

In America:

  1. Dow Industrials +0.01% 
  2. Dow Transports -0.1%
  3. SP500 -0.28%
  4. Russell 2000 -0.84%
  5. Nasdaq100 -0.29%
Comment: Apart from the Dow Industrials most other major indices had minor losses.  The Russell 2000 (small caps) showed how risk averse this market has become with a big down day.

Europe
  1. France -0.57%
  2. Germany -0.17%
  3. London -0.04%
EWA (Australian Shares ETF traded on the New York Stock Exchange) +0.22%.  The EWA had a small gain but had been up much higher earlier in the evening.  The reversal in the EWA was due largely to a fall in the Ozzie Dollar, -0.64%.

Technical Comment on the American Market:
  1. SP500 is in a clear down trend.  Today's close was 1324.5.
  2. Rarely does a strong market have three down days in a row.
  3. For a clear medium term "sell" signal I like to see five indicators in sync:
    • Slow Stochastic below 80 (condition not met)
    • Break below the 13-Day MA (condition not met)
    • RSI below its mid-line (condition not met)
    • MACD Histogram below Zero (condition not met)
    • CCI below 100 (condition met)
  4. Volume was low - calling into doubt the significance of today's falls
  5. Significant horizontal support in 1300 area.
  6. 50-Day Moving Average currently at 1314.  That might provide support if this market continues to fall.
Four out of five conditions for a "sell" have not been met.  But all are on the cusp.  One more down day would do it.  What's the betting tomorrow will be up?  :)  The market invariably keeps us in suspenders.
  
In the past 24-Hours Gold in Ozzie Dollars has fallen -0.33% (despite a weak Ozzie Dollar).  That's a plus for our market today.

Our market was bizarre yesterday closing up quite strongly but the strength was located in the Energy and Materials sectors.   Today we'll probably be down, at least early in the piece.  A weak Ozzie Dollar doesn't help much.  If we're down solidly, then this rally is probably over.  But - let's wait and see how today plays out.  Rising interest rates in Europe, more trembles and economic disruption in Japan, debt woes in Portugal, continuing tensions and fighting in the Middle East/North Africa, Commodities down - none of that adds up to a context engendering confidence.    

Good luck
Redb

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