Morning Coffee. Thursday, 14 April, 2011

In America:

1. Dow Industrials +0.06% 
2. Dow Transports -0.14%
3. SP500 +0.02%
4. Russell 2000 +0.2%
5. Nasdaq100 +0.8%

Comment: Industrials and SP500 flat.  Nasdaq diverged quite strongly from the other two indices.  The Russell 2000 (small caps) showed positively - but not enough to get excited about.  

Europe

1. France +0.75%
2. Germany +1.06%
3. London +0.77%

Europe continued the theme set earlier by Asian markets which were generally strong - Australia being the exception with a lack lustre effort.

EWA (Australian Shares ETF traded on the New York Stock Exchange) +0.78%.  The Australian Dollar was strong +0.61% to finish to finish above 105.

Technical Comment on the American Market:

1. SP500 has stalled at the lows of a short term down trend.  Today's close was 1314.41.
2. The 50-Day MA is currently providing support.  That's a positive.  
3. For a clear medium term "sell" signal I like to see five indicators in sync:
• Slow Stochastic below 80 (condition met)
• Break below the 13-Day MA (condition met)
• RSI below its mid-line (condition not met as RSI rose back above 50 today, finishing at 50.1)
• MACD Histogram below Zero (condition met)
• CCI below 100 (condition met)
4. Volume was lower than yesterday but higher than the previous two days.  
5. Significant horizontal support in 1300 area.

Four out of five conditions for a "sell" have been met.  RSI back above 50.

In the short-term, the SPX remains oversold with an RSI.2 down at 5.3 (close to zero).  A bounce here is likely.

  

In the past 24-Hours Gold in Ozzie Dollars has fallen -0.12%.  That's flat.   

SPY futures are currently pointing down -9 points.  With a flat American market, a strong EWA and Ozzie Dollar, I think we could surprise to the upside today.

We shall see.

Good luck

Redb