The market barely moved today, down about 12 points on the XAO or about -0.25%. Despite the small move, considerable technical damage is starting to show up on the Moving Averages. The 13-Day SMA has now moved below the 65-Day SMA for the first time since this rally really got under way earlier in the year.
The Australian Dollar is starting to look weak. The chart line, as of this morning, had marginally broken support. Since this morning's call, the AUD has dropped from 0.907 to just 0.899 as of the time of writing. If this weakness continues overnight, the marginal break seen this morning will become significant.
For many weaks I've been saying that "it's all about the dollar". With the dollar weakening significantly, it is difficult to see how our stock market can remain bullish.
Breadth continues to be weak. Since early November, the Advance/Decline Ratio is rarely able to get above the mid-line of the long term range while spiking down on occasions into the Extreme Low category.
Now. The chart of the XAO has not yet broken down out of its range. Until that happens, we can't make any firm conclusions. But, it looks like a matter of when, not if.
What about seasonality? Well, maybe this year Santa's not coming. So many people are waiting to make easy money from the Santa rally when (???) it comes - it just may be the case, that they will be disappointed. The market has a great ability to disappoint most of the people most of the time (if you'll pardon the alteration of a great historical quote).
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