Today the XAO was up 13.5 points, +0.3%. Trading was skewed by two main factors. Today was Options Expiry Day - and volume was way up. NAB was in a trading halt until late in the afternoon, and when it came on to the market NAB fell -4.65%. (NAB has made a bid for AXA's Australian and New Zealand Assets). This had flow on effects to the Financials Sector (XXJ down -0.7%) and because of NAB's large market capitalisation, it had a negative effect on the 20 Leaders and the 50 Leaders.
In many ways, the market today was quite bullish. The Advance/Decline Ratio was bullish with a reading of 1.32 and the Small Ordinaries were up +1.0%.
The market hasn't made much head-way in the past three days. It is now at significant horizontal resistance and the resistance of the 13-Day SMA and the 65-Day SMA. (See chart above.) If it can overcome that, the next major horizontal resistance is not far away. So I can't see much headway being made between now and Christmas. But - anything can happen.
I commented yesterday on the drop in the Australian Dollar. That drop was maintained overnight and weakened slightly today. The 13-Day SMA has crossed below the 34-Day SMA, and the chart line is now in a gentle downsloping channel (see top chart). A drop through the bottom of the channel would be very negative for the Ozzie Dollar and our stock market. While the Ozzie remains in that gentle downsloping channel, I can't see a big reaction on our stock market. But it needs careful watching. The change in the Ozzie seems like the beginning of a trend change - but I'd still like to see it drop through the 0.897 area before declaring a pessimistic outlook.
No comments:
Post a Comment