The American market was down heavily last night. Dow Industrial Index -1.87%. Transports -1.15%. S&P500 -1.89%. Russell2000 -2.64%. Nasdaq100 -1.65%.Technically the market could be at support. The RSI is down around the levels seen in the November 2010 retracement. The Stochastic is showing a mild positive divergence to the Index chart.
Volume went up a little today compared to the last few days but the volume trend is down for this retracement. That's usually considered a positive.
Last night the American market fell heavily at the start and in the early afternoon looked like it would make something of a recovery. Then news arrived that Saudi police had fired on protesters Qatif. The protest was relatively small. Al Jazeera quoted several hundred people. This looks like a warning to others not to join in the "Day of Rage" planned on a large scale today (Friday).
Despite the big fall on the American market, both gold and oil also fell. Gold (in U.S. Dollars) -1.29%. West Texas Oil -1.76%.
Much of the recent falls in equities has been blamed on MENA unrest and the effect on the oil price. So - oil fell today and so did equities. What's going on?
Probably - there's more to the fall in equities than just the oil price. Economic conditions generally are not positive. German and Chinese exports have unexpectedly declined. The European debt issue is worsening with Moody's downgrading Spain. The cost of insuring Portugese and Greek debt has also risen. South Korea raised interest rates for the second time this year because of inflation fears.
So - it's not just all about oil.
Turning to the Gold ETF traded on the Australian Exchange - it could be coming to the end of this run-up judging by the three repeating ranges shown on the chart (see Arrows on the chart). If it is coming to the end of this run, then the general market might also be coming to the end of its falls. That's a bit speculative - but it often works. We shall see.
Good luck
Red
No comments:
Post a Comment