Summary week ended 4/2/2011

SUMMARY & CONCLUSION

TRENDS:

1. XJO: long/medium-term - up.
2. XJO: short-term - Up
3. S&P 500: medium-term - up
4. S&P 500: short-term - up
5. Nikkei: medium-term trend - up
6. Copper: New 52-Week high.
7. Ozzie Dollar: Sideways consolidation. Short-term trend - up.
8. Goldman Sachs: Medium-term Trend - up, Short-term trend - down

XJO currently at 4820.6.

Major Support and Resistance for XJO: Resistance: 5000; Support 4740 .

Ratio American Bonds:Commodities - Positive for the general market

Ratio Dow Industrials:Transport - Caution

S&P500: Indicators are flashing warning signs.

Ben Bernanke?s QE2 program will probably sustain the American market in the long term.

Seasonalities for February in 3rd Yr of Presidential Cycle favour the upside.

American market?s rise this weak occurred on weakening volume. Negative.
XJO Long-term Chart Pattern: Rising bearish wedge.

Next Week: So - the trend is up - but there are plenty of warnings of a downside move. The Chart pattern on the XJO doesn't allow for much more upside - unless it's going to be a real bullish burst. The probabilities for a down side correction have increased. Seasonal conditions may overcome that possibility. At this stage, I'm looking for a flat to down week.

Any correction is likely to be muted because of Bernanke?s money supply and the strength of the Presidential Cycle in the 3rd Year.

Good luck

Red