Thursday, February 3, 2011

Market Comments - 3/2/2011



The market today was up modestly. I thought after yesterday we might have a down day today - and after last night's action in America, I thought I was spot on. But the market couldn't care less about what I think and it went up today - particularly in the afternoon. Nothing dramatic - but solid.

The Nikkei was down today. The Nikkei got it right - Australia got it wrong. Just kidding. :)

There are some puzzling events.

Remember, I'm just a guy sitting at a computer in a suburb in Brisbane. I have no more resources than you. I'm not a multi-national media giant, or a big managed fund, or a big hedge fund. I'm just a little elderly guy trying to make sense of this thing I look at every day.

A few things have piqued my interest today - and I find them puzzling. Nothing more. But I wish I could understand them.

First, Fairfax Media was the best performer today in the Fifty-Leaders. It was up +4.09% on average volume. Why? I can't see any announcements regarding FXJ. Strange - up strongly on average volume. Beats me. Maybe I've missed something.

BHP. At the end of last week, I thought BHP was a goner. This week, it's been gapping up every day and looks like challenging recent long-term highs. No doubt the analysts will attribute this to the surging price of Copper. Fair enough. But the rise looks a bit extreme. And is a major reason for the rise in the Australian general market indices.

More puzzling still is the discrepancy today between Advancing Volume and Declining Volume. The Advance/Decline Ratio was within expected parameters: 1.3. The AdvVol/DeclVol Ratio was an unexpected 2.6. That's extremely strong. Where did the unexpected Advancing Volume come from?

Beats me.

Tomorrow? ahhh - probably a bit weaker. But what do I know?

Good luck
Red


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