Monday, January 17, 2011

Market Comments. 17/1/2011

The All Ordinaries Index was down -0.7% today. Volume on Mondays is usually lighter than the middle of the week. With a holiday in America tonight, some traders might have been wary to enter positions today. Still, volume was higher today than the previous Monday.

Risk Aversion was the order of the day. Small-Ordinaries (XAO) was down -1.1%, while the 50-Leaders (XFL) was down -0.8%. Advancing Volume to Declining Volume was similarly risk averse with a ratio of 0.8 (below 1.0 is a bearish reading).

Technically, not much damage was done. The MACD Histogram and Smoothed Repulse remain above their mid-lines - that's a positive. The Daily Stochastic is still reading Overbought - Caution required.

Looking at the chart itself - that 3-Day candle stick formation is ugly (a big up-candle, dumpy squat candle, big down-candle). That's a common topping pattern. It has come right at that middle oblique up-trend line. The chart hit that line and has now retreated. Given that the Daily Stochastic is still reading Overbought - it suggests some further falls may occur.

On the Plus side, the chart remains above the stepped Super Trend Line on the Chart.

So - at this stage this is still a minor retracement. More obvious technical damage to Indicators and Trend Lines needs to occur before pessimism sets in.

While the chart remains above the Super Trend Line and within that long-term upsloping channel, the Trend remains UP.

Later on tonight I'll add some information about event stocks.

Cheers
Red

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