Thursday, September 16, 2010



Ok, it's time for a rant.

Here's what YahooFinance7 said today about the fall in the Ozzie Market:

Analysts said a chance the United States may fall back into recession -- dragging down other economies and demand for Australia's main commodity exports with it -- continued to sap buyer confidence.

Gimme a break - that story has been around since Methusaleh was a pup. That comment is about as banal as it gets.

And how about this one from ComSec:

The Australian share market eased today, as investors elected to book profits after the recent September rally.

Yeah - the market only "eased" today.

Just have a look (above) what happened to two of the highest price stocks on the Australian market. If that's an "easing", then I'll expect Jenny on ABC news to describe the next cyclone as a "minor weather disturbance". :)

Have a look, can you find a bigger candle in the past three months than that big black monster on the CBA chart? I can't.

On Monday and Tuesday, the market sold off in the last hour. Monday was more obvious than Tuesday, but both were clear sell-offs, and on increasing volume. Last hour sell-offs are usually precipitated by professionals in the big institutions. This, to me, was a clear example of the smart money selling off to the dumb money, who were still rushing in to buy this market. Then - have a look at that candle on CBA. It actually set a new 20-Day High today before collapsing. A lot of "dumb money" got caught by that down draught.

If you couple that with the slowing of momentum that I chronicled yesterday, then there was a convincing case for a down turn. Today's action should have come as no surprise.

Still - I mustn't get too cocky. The market has a way of biting you on the backside if you do that.

The market has good support below it - until that gets taken out any major retracement remains in doubt.

Cheers
Red


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