OK. I'vc been rocking away here for a while, thinking, thinking, thinking.
And then I thought I should do something serious - like look at some data on the computer. Nothing better than that for clarifying thoughts.
This is a chart of net Advancers-Decliners. The actual chart has been deleted, and only 13-Day MA and 34-Day MA's are shown. And the 34-Day MA is disturbing. Since late August it has been in a down trend, i.e., the relative strength of the Advancers/Decliners has been declining. A negative divergence from price (XAO).
It has broken marginally below the Zero line twice - once in early December and again in early January.
A break below the December Low by the 34-Day MA could ring the death knell for this bull market.
We'll be watching this closely in the next few days
Alternatively - a break above the down trend line (blue) would be very bullish.
Cheers
Red
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