Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Initial Comments, 10/2/2010

Today was gay deceiver day on the market.

At the close (4.00 p.m.) the market was about par for the day (i.e., flat). In the after-market auction it rose a bit for the XAO to be up +0.3%/

So - it looked like a weak day. Well - disaggregation of the Indices shows basically that the weakness was due to the financials - really, just the big banks. Energy was flat, IT was down - but plays such a small part in the scheme of things that we can disregard that.

Every other Industry Sector and Sub-Sector was up, in some cases quite strongly.

That is supported by looking at the Small Ordinaries/Mid-Caps/20 Leaders.

Small Ordinaries: +0.9%
Mid-Caps: +1.5%
20 Leaders: -0.2%

In the 20 Leaders, the following stocks were down:

ANZ, CBA, CSL, MQG, NAB, WBC, WPL.

Seven stocks down, five of those were banks. Thirteen stocks were up. These were:

AMP, BHP, BXB, FGL, NCM, ORG, QBE, RIO, SUN, TLS, WDC, WES, WOW.

So - apart from the banks - strength was seen across the board.

Just to add some more evidence:

Advance/Decline Ratio: 1.44
Up Vol/Down Vol Ratio: 2.15

I think today can be forgotten about. Breadth was good - the market was basically pulled down by CBA's poor report and its effect on the other big banks. Almost everything else in the market was reasonably positive.

Just how bad was CBA's report? Well - the market didn't like it - but didn't hate it. CBA was only down -1.7%. If the market thought it was horrible - it would have been down maybe -5% or worse. I'll leave the analysts to delve into the ifs, buts and wherefores of the report. But the market didn't see it as slit-the-throat time.

So summing up today - it was mostly good. Tomorrow is another day.

But - look out for black swans, and animals (like PIGS) crossing the street.

Cheers
Red

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