Good day today. XAO, +0.9%%, finished at 4834 a new rally high.
Energy was the strongest sector, up +1.6%. Meanwhile the hapless Telecommunications Sector was down 0.8% - the only industry sector down today.
Breadth was positive. Advance/Decline Ratio: 1.75. Strong - but nothing spectacular.
Advancing Volume/Declining Volume Ratio: 2.66.
The market is overbought and heading for a climax.
% of 50 Leaders above:
10SMA - 82% (overbought)
50SMA - 86% (overbought)
150SMA - 98% (Golly Gosh)
Can we see 100% above the 150DSMA? Highly probable.
The Advance/Decline Cumulative Total had another rally high today. But the following stats suggest that we're in shortly for at least a short term retracement:
Current 5DaySMA (Simple Moving Average) of % Advances/Declines = 61.4%.
The 5DSMA of ADV/DECL% has been above 60% six times since mid-April.
Five of those six times the market declined soon after for at least a couple of days.
The odd one out was in Mid-July which precipitated the current rally. That occurred after a significant decline and was part of a 13-Day consecutive run-up in the A/D Line.
Given that the current figure is occurring at the top of a rally (as in all but one of the cases) - not the bottom - the probabilities lie with a retracement of at least short-term duration.
The June-July correction was precipitated by a 5DSMA % reading of 60.3%.
Meanwhile, the Ozzie Dollar continues to rampage upwards - currently at .9129USD.
While the exchange rate continues northwards, our stock market will continue to do the same.
The On Balance Volume Chart is also showing a negative divergence to price suggesting that this rally is running out of steam.
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