QUICK UPDATE, THURS. 22/10/09

The market (All Ordinaries Index) was down modestly today, -0.6%. Nothing dramatic.

The Advance/Decline Ratio was in the red at 0.81. That's in line with a down day.

However, UpVol/DownVol was in the green at 1.3. That's a non-confirmation of the down day.

The 20-Day NewHighs/NewLows (50 Leaders) were 8/2. Another non-confirmation. This appears to be in sync with the UpVol/DownVol figure.

The 50 Leaders were down -0.5% (outperforming the XAO).

The Small Ordinaries were down -0.8%. So there was some risk aversion in the market today.

The currency dropped intra-day, but was still obstinately above 0.92 USD at the time of writing.

Overall, one must still conclude that this is still a minor pull-back in the ongoing bull market.

Gold ETF 12/10/09

The Gold ETF is still within the confines of the multi-month sideways consolidation. The chart is now sitting just below the upper boundary of the consolidation channel.

The Gold ETF has, over a two year period, a negative correlation with the All Ordinaries Index (XAO) of -0.9. That's close to a perfect inverse correlation; i.e., if the All Ords goes down, the Gold ETF goes up.

If the Gold ETF goes through that horizontal resistance level - expect further bullish upward movement. And that would be a negative for the Australian market.

Currency rates are now crucial. The Gold ETF is likely to go higher if the Ozzie Dollar goes lower - and the Australian market will go with it.

Any how - that's just how I see it.