Daily Comments, Mon. 07/12/09

The All Ordinaries finished down -0.55% today.

Advance/Decline Ratio was a bearish 0.71. UpVolume/DownVolume was more bearish at 0.58.

The best performing sector was Health at 1.2%. The worst performer was Materials at -1.8%.

The recent good run for Materials seems to be over while the Financials are improving on a relative basis, down only -0.2%. Looks like its time to switch out of BHP and into CBA.

Gold Miners took a big hit, down -5%. Lihir Gold actually hit a 20 Day Low after hitting a 20 Day High only three days ago. Is the Gold Rush over? Still too early to say.

The XAO remains in No Man's Land between +1 Standard Deviation and -1 Standard Deviation above and below the 50-Day Simple Moving Average. Until the chart line can decisively break above +1 Standard Deviation above the 50DSMA, the XAO remains in Pull Back mode.

Market Comments, Wed. 02/12/09

The market opened strongly today, the XAO was up over seventy points soon after the open.

It then drifted slowly lower all day to finish up 43.6 points or +0.9%.

There were no really obvious discontinuities internally in the market. The Materials Sector was the best performer, up +2.1%. The Telecommunications Sector was the second best performer, up +1.3%. The only sector down was Consumer Staples, down -0.1%, once again weighed down by a poor performance from Woolies.

The Advance/Decline Ratio was in line with the rise in the Index - 1.6. This is about what one would expect with a rise like today's.

We've now had three up days, and as can be seen from the above chart, the XAO is now at resistance. That's its first real test. A break above that would be bullish. The market has a habit of pulling back after three or four up days. So tomorrow could be crucial for the short term future of this market.

Also notice the DMI/ADX. The DMI + & - are twining together, and the ADX is below 15. This is indicative of a non-trending market. The MACD is confirming that - it is flat lining around the zero mark. Although the market has had its ups and downs it has basically gone nowhere for five weeks. A big move is coming shortly. A break upwards here would suggest further big moves up. A move lower would mean further sideways consolidation until the recent low is broken to the down side.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Market Comments. 17/11/09

Despite the big move by the American market last night, the down movement I expected from yesterday's Australian action occurred today.

The switch out of Financials and into Materials continued with a vengeance today - but not enough to keep the market positive.

Apart from the Materials, the only sectors positive today were three defensive sectors: Consumer Staples, Health and Utilities.

Small Ordinaries(-0.3%) didn't fare as badly as the 50 Leaders (-0.6%). So some appetite for risk remains (as evidenced by the positive showing in Materials).

The five-day average of Advancing issues turned down today. The last time that happened was in mid-October which led into the big retreat finishing in early November. A turn down in this indicator is often (but not always) the beginning of a retreat.

Follow through selling tomorrow would be very bearish.

Market Wrap - 04/11/09

The All Ordinaries Index was up marginally today +0.2%.

Breadth was marginally negative with an Advance/Decline Ratio of 0.95.

In the 50 Leaders, NewHighs/NewLows were 1/12 which is quite negative.

Only six percent of the 50 Leaders were above the 10-Day Moving Average. That figure is too low.

Expect more sideways to up movement.

The rest of this week will be dominated by two events in America. Tonight the Federal Reserve meets to announce interest rate settings.

On Friday night, American jobs data is announced.

Either or both of these could have a big impact on the market, one way or the other.

The sideways action over the past couple of days is not unusual leading up to such important news events.

Market Up-Date. Friday, 16/10/09

On today's early morning post, I suggested we were due for a pull back. After headed upwards early in today's session, it was all down-hill, confirming this morning's suggestion. How much more? Anybody's guess - but I don't think it's done yet.

Here's the run-down for today.

XAO - 4842.6. Down 0.4%

In the Industry Sectors, only two sectors were up:

Utilities: up +0.5%
Health: up +0.01%.

It is noteworthy that the both sectors in the green were defensive sectors.

The two worst performers were:

Financials: down -0.7%
Industrials: down -1.0%

Breadth was marginally positive. Advance/Decline Ratio: 1.08.

Like yesterday, Up Volume to Down Volume was in the Red: 0.98

The Ozzie $ fell back below the .92 cent mark today. Nothing much can be read into that on an intra-day basis.

This week-end I'll post an extensive update. One of my charts analysing price and volume is suggesting that a cautious approach to the market should be taken. A retracement seems to have begun.