Morning Coffee. Friday, 15 April, 2011

In America:

1. Dow Industrials +0.12% 
2. Dow Transports +0.34%
3. SP500 +0.01%
4. Russell 2000 +0.43%
5. Nasdaq100 -0.23%

Comment: Industrials and SP500 flat.  (I've looked at three different sources for a close on the SPX - all three are different, but basically hovering around 0 - flat.)  Nasdaq down a little.  Breadth was good (Russell 2000) and Transports were also good.  

Europe

1. France -0.89%
2. Germany -0.44%
3. London -0.78%

Europe continued the theme set earlier by Asian markets which were generally weak.

EWA (Australian Shares ETF traded on the New York Stock Exchange) +0.22%.  The Australian Dollar was strong +0.37% to finish to finish above 105.43.

Technical Comment on the American Market:

1. SP500 has stalled at the lows of a short term down trend.  Today's close was 1314.52.
2. The 50-Day MA is currently providing support.  That's a positive.  
3. For a clear medium term "sell" signal I like to see five indicators in sync:
• Slow Stochastic below 80 (now 34.9, condition met)
• Break below the 13-Day MA (condition met)
• RSI below its mid-line (now 49, condition met)
• MACD Histogram below Zero (now -1.08, condition met)
• CCI below 100 (now -28.1, condition met)
4. Volume was highest since mid-March when the previous retracement finished.  
5. Significant horizontal support in 1300 area.

Five out of five conditions for a "sell" have been met.  Somehow my intuition suspects the "sell" signal.  Why?  That big volume today and the intra-day action.  A solid sell-off at the beginning of the day - then a reversal upwards to finish flat - with the broader market strong.  The reversal upwards came at the 1300 support area mentioned in the Technical Comment.  Smells like burning bear meat to me.  Still, I'd wait for confirmation tomorrow before putting money on today's action.  

Google, in after-hours trading, is down around -5%.

In the short-term, the SPX remains oversold with an RSI.2 under 10.  A bounce here is likely.

  

In the past 24-Hours Gold in Ozzie Dollars has risen over 1% despite the stronger Ozzie Dollar.

Today, despite the negativity around Google, I think our market will continue on from the mild bullish tone in America.  Today's action in Australia could be a leading indicator for America tonight.

We shall see.

Cheers

Redb