Monday, March 15, 2010

Tuesday Morning Comments, 16/3/2010

The Dow was up marginally last night +0.16% while the Nasdaq Composite, which tends to lead the market up and down, was down -0.23%.

A clear negative divergence now exists between the MACD Histogram and the Dow itself, warning of a possible retracement.

Both the RSI2 and the StochRSI30 are up in extreme readings for a longer period of time than at any other time in the past six months. A break by the RSI2 below 70 will almost certainly lead the market lower.

The candle today was a "hangman", often seen at the top of an extended rally.

If the Australian market breaks lower today (see last night's comments), I think that will be the end of this rally, at least in the short term.

Cheers
Red

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