Market comment. Thursday 26/3/10

Just took a quick sqizz at Oz market.

Small Ordinaries still underperforming 50 Leaders.

Big institutions still seem to be on the defensive.

Any external shock will likely drop this market.

Cheers

Red

Last: 23/3/2010

One final comment.

Small Ordinaries today: +0.5%

Twenty Leaders today: +1.1%.

That's unusually risk averse.

The big investors (institutions) don't seem to think that this up move has much going for it.

Still - it's only one day.

Cheers

Red

ADVANCE/Decline Line - 1223/01/2010

The Advance/Decline Line is congruent with the XAO Chart. Until that uptrend line is broken to the down side, we must presume the trend is still up.

The Advance/Decline Thrust is now showing a clear divergence from the A/D Line. However, no lower lower has been recorded on the A/D Thrust chart - so we cannot say we have a down trend. (Higher lows are marked by horizontal red lines. A Lower Low will be recorded when the highest horizontal red line is broken to the down side.) Until a lower low is recorded we must presume the trend of the A/D Line is still up.

This will be my last blog for a few days. After that blogs will appear at irregular intervals. If I see anything serious occurring in the market (IMHO) I'll endeavour to get a blog up asap.

At the moment, it's steady as she goes - but this market does look like it's going through a topping process. Any pull back might just be minor - but it could be as far as the 4500 area on the XAO. That would be a worst case scenario at this stage.

If 4500 breaks - then IMHO long term holders might consider taking some off the table.

Best of Luck

Red

Week End Summary. 21/3/2010

I'm keeping it simple this weekend as I'm pressed for time.

The above daily chart is of the XAO for one year.

Negative divergences exist on the CCI and the MACD Histogram.

If this market is to have a significant pull-back - perhaps to the February Low, then look for:

1. A break by the RSI below its trend line (top pane).
2. A break by the stock chart below its trend line (main pane).
3. A break by the MACD Histogram below Zero.
4. A break by the CCI below 100.

I'm expecting these to occur coincidentally within the coming week. Perhaps as early as Monday or Tuesday.

We shall see.

Cheers

Red

Market Comments. 18/3/2010

Well, the XAO got over the last trend line hurdle. It's been getting over every hurdle like Jana Pitman winning a Gold in the 400m. H.

She's got one more to go before entering the straight and a clear run. And that's horizontal resistance at the 4900 area. We reached a little under that today with the XAO at 4878.

I've got more overbought readings than a sports writer's got hyperboles.

In America, the SPY has now had 14 consecutive days up. The previous record was 12 back in the 1990's during the dot.com boom.

Here's some Indices on the American market which have RSI readings of +70. Over 70 is considered over bought and often a signal for bears to go short. Over 80 - and it is usually considered a sure bet:

RUT (Russell 2000) - 77.6
IYR (Real Estate Investment Trusts) - 81.74
SPX (S&P 500) - 75.33
Transports - 78.2
Wilshire - 76.95

The XAO is relatively tame by comparison, with an RSI of just 66.2.

Well - I remember being in the Brisbane Casino and seeing 19 reds in a row come up on the Roulette Wheel. People were flocking in to bet on black after 7 reds in a row. There weren't too many bodies left standing after the 19th red.

After the 19th red, there was one black, and then three more reds.

The market feels a little like that now. How many bears are left with any money? And who's still left to buy this market?

Random variations like this can kill you if you bet against them.

Wait for the trend to change. You'll be a bit late - so what? You'll still be alive.

Here's a couple of tidbits. The only two Industry Sectors to be above their January highs are Health and Consumer Staples. What is going on? These are both Defensive Sectors and they are leading a bull market higher? That's weird.

Cheers

Red

New Highs, New Lows. 17/3/2010

Here's a chart I haven't shown before.

It tracks the net New Highs/New Lows for the 50-Leaders (XFL) on the Australian Stock Market.

The blue line is the raw figure, the Yellow Line is a 5-Day Average, and the Orange Line is a 13-Day Average.

Although the market is making new highs on the indices, the raw figure has turned down and the 5-Day Average has crossed below the 13-Day Average.

The previous two times this has happened (mid-October and early January) the market went into significant declines.

Will history repeat? I don't think I'll be betting against it.

Cheers

Red

Thursday Morning Down Chart 15/3/2010

The ducks are lined up.

The January high has been reached. Daily RSI is overbought 71.07. Negative divergence on the Daily MACD histogram. Volume steadily declining.

It wouldn't take much for the trend line to be broken to the down side.

But - a trend is not finished till it is finished.

When that trend line breaks, the Dow will probably fall hard.

Cheers

Red

MARKET Comments. 17/3/2010

In the first hour of trading today there was nothing particularly that I could see that the Australian market would have a strong day. But it did, up 1.2% after the Sp500 was up 0.78% in America.

In the first hour, trading was contained by the recent tight trading range of 4800-4850. The XAO rose to resistance around 4850 and then retreated.

Volume in the first hour was about average for the past five days. That is often a sign of a trendless day. But, the market ended with a volume of 1.6 Billion shares traded, the highest since 30 October 2009. If you remember, that was close to the end of the October sell-off.

So, in recent history, such a volume is significant. The question now is - Does this represent the start of a new up leg, or the end of this rally from February.

I have a "last gasp" trend-line marked on today's XAO chart. If the market clears that - then we are going much higher.

If we get a solid black candle tomorrow - all bets for the bulls are off.

In the meantime - the XA0 broke above horizontal resistance at 4850 today. Classical support and resistance theory suggests we are going higher. That is supported by the strong volume today.

I wouldn't be selling out on today's action. :)) But a couple of down days - and I'd be hedging my long position.

Cheers

Red

Wednesday Morning Dow Chart. 17/3/2010

The above is a relatively short term chart of the Dow going back to early February.

The Dow is in an upsloping wedge (bearish) which is confirmed by similar wedges on the RSI and Williams %R.

These usually break to the downside. A break upwards would suggest a blow-off top is being set up.

This will probably resolve by the end of this week at the latest.

Cheers

Red

Morning Update 17/3/2010

The American market had a good night last night, nothing startling, but solid. The SP500 was up 0.78% while the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.67%,

There's nothing in that to suggest that the Australian market will break from its six day trading range of 4800-4850.

Our market is still held under resistance of 4850 and the middle tyne of the Andrews Pitchfork.

Some divergence appears between the MACD Histogram and the Index chart - but it's not serious yet.

It looks like more sideways consolidation today.

I won't be surprised to see another reversal day today after an initial run-up.

Cheers

Red

Market Comments. 16/3/2010

Just have a look at that momentum graph, second lower pane. As flat as ... well ... have you been out back - that's what it looks like. You drive for miles and miles and miles. And there's a few dips and hollows, a few scrubby trees. And if that's your idea of excitement ... you're welcome to it.

But ... somewhere, very soon, something exciting happens. You don't know what - but it will knock your socks off. That's the wonder of the out back.

Now - have a look at the top chart - its a chart of the Advance/Decline Ratio with a 13-Day Moving Average. That's the yellow line. The last time we had real "stodgy" was back in June/July 2009. Remember that. It suddenly changed to a very big upward trend which kept going until mid-October09.

This time, "stodgy" has been going for even longer. See the yellow line - just vibrating sideways.

A biggie is coming - I could say TSUNAMI, but I won't. (OMG - I just did.)

Which way - nobody knows. Anybody who tells you they know - don't believe them - it's just guess work. Believe it when it happens. There'll be time to react and go with the flow.

Just get on that surf board and ride it which ever way it takes you.

Cheers

Red

Tuesday Morning Comments, 16/3/2010

The Dow was up marginally last night +0.16% while the Nasdaq Composite, which tends to lead the market up and down, was down -0.23%.

A clear negative divergence now exists between the MACD Histogram and the Dow itself, warning of a possible retracement.

Both the RSI2 and the StochRSI30 are up in extreme readings for a longer period of time than at any other time in the past six months. A break by the RSI2 below 70 will almost certainly lead the market lower.

The candle today was a "hangman", often seen at the top of an extended rally.

If the Australian market breaks lower today (see last night's comments), I think that will be the end of this rally, at least in the short term.

Cheers

Red

Distribution of Losses. 15/3/2010

The above chart shows just how evenly distributed losses were today. Most Industry Sectors were down between -0.6% and -0.8%. Rarely do we see such an even distribution across the board.

The only two sectors to buck the trend were Information Technology (flat on the day) and Energy -0.2%.

We're coming into a seasonally strong period for Energy which has been one of the worst performers in the market for some months. Last week it was one of the best performers amongst the Industry Sectors, shaded only by Telecommunications.

Its worth keeping an eye on Energy stocks from here on.

Cheers

Lance

WBC - Warning

For email recipients. WBC is at a critical level. If the RSI breaks below 60 - that will be a short term sell signal. Williams %R has already broken below its mid-line.

The Daily MACD is within a whisker of breaking below its signal line.

The stock is clearly rolling over. That doesn't mean it must - but it looks likely.

Cheers

Red

CSL - 15/3/2010

For Email Recipients. CSL has given a short term sell signal. The Daily RSI has broken below 70 and formed a double top. The stock has broken below the uptrend line from mid-February. We've had a good run on CSL - and now sitting on a nice profit.

Cheers

Red

Market Comments: 15/3/2010

The Force Index MAs are now giving early sell signals.

There was a negative divergence on the 5-Day MA (Yellow Line) which has now broken below the zero line.

The 21-Day MA (green line) has now broken below its uptrend line - that's an early sell signal. It would be confirmed by the 13-Day MA (Orange line) breaking below the zero line.

A sell short signal would be given if the 21-Day MA (green line) falls below the zero line.

On the one-hour intra-day chart, the Indicators in the lower pane are all negative. MACD below Zero and both RSI and Williams %R below their mid-lines.

The XAO today finished right at recent support of 4800 (3999.4 to be exact) and also on the 65-period moving average. So there is some hope for a rebound tomorrow. But - a break low should see the index continue much lower.

Volume the past two days has also been on the low side - so the selling has not been with great conviction.

Let's see what tomorrow brings.

If the market is down in the first hour tomorrow on better than recent volume, I think we can say goodbye to this recent rally from early February.

You may remember from my Weekly Report, that the XAO was at a significant confluence of resistance (horizontal and diagonal). It looks like that resistance level is playing out to the negative side.

Cheers

Red

Another flat day with the XAO down marginally by just 0.09%. Another small doji - which can be a signal of indecision or a warning of an impending reversal.

The best five performing S&PSectors were:

1. Telecommunications +2.4%
2. Health +0.6%
3. Utilities +0.4%
4. Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary both up 0.2%

Four out of five of these sectors are Defensive Sectors.

So there is a note of caution beginning to creep into the market.

The chart above also shows that the XAO is now at the confluence of two important resistance lines - the horizontal one from the high in mid-October and the up trend line being touched from the underside.

The two resistance lines in tandem provide a powerful force exerting downward pressure on the Index.

All of that is not enough to say that we are looking at a reversal.

The A/D Ratio was just bullish at 1.06 while the UpVol/DownVol Ratio was mildly bearish at .88. Not a lot to go on.

Risk Taking Sentiment was similarly unrewarding in giving direction with the 50-Leaders down -0.1% while the Small Ordinaries were down -0.15%. A slight bias to Risk Aversion, but not a lot in it.

So there we have it. The possibility of a reversal has been set-up - something we haven't seen for many days. Tomorrow's action will be telling. A big black candle will confirm the setup - but further up movement will see the XAO set up to tackle the January highs after taking a rest at this level 4800/4850. A clear break below 4800 (a nice round number) should be decisive.

Any way - that's how I see it for today.

Cheers and good luck,

Red

SLF 10/3/2010

This is a chart of SLF, the exchange traded fund based on the Property Trust Index.

It remains within the confines of a large symmetrical triangle. Until it breaks one way or the other, no action should be taken.

Today it broke below the 15-Day Moving Average. That's a negative, but it is still supported by the lower trend line of the triangle.

Cheers

Red

Gold ETF, 10/3/2010

The above Ratio Chart shows the Gold:XAO ratio. Gold being the Gold ETF traded on the Australian stock market and prices Gold in Ozzie Dollars.

This chart acts as a buy/sell signal for both Gold and the XAO as Gold in Ozzie Dollars tends to act inversely to the XAO.

Currently, the ratio is in an elongated symmetrical triangle. A break upwards would be a "buy" signal for Gold and a "sell" signal for the XAO.

Currently - no action is required.

Cheers

Red

Another Warning: 10/3/2010

I've been digging around in the American market.

Here's another warning - from the American Market. The SPY is an Exchange Traded Fund that replicates the S&P500.

The Put/Call Ratio is now at a multi-month low. It is now much lower than it was in early January when the big retracement from January into February began.

The Put/Call Ratio is a contrary indicator based on the assumption that when options traders are showing extreme bullishness (or bearishness) the market is likely to change its trend.

These warnings, like the divergence in my previous post, are just that - warnings, not timing signals. But they mean we should take signals when they occur in the primary indicators (the price/index charts) very seriously.

Cheers

Red

Here's a warning: 10/3/2010

This is a very messy chart of my own creation. I don't often resort to putting these up because they are messy and require careful interpretation.

It shows 5 Day SMA (yellow line), 13-Day SMA (Orange Line) and 21 Day SMA (Green Line) of a variation of Alexander Elders Force Index. The Force Index (eliminated from the chart) is an oscillator calculated by multiplying the advance or decline in the XAO by the volume. My variation is to multiply the advance or decline not by volume but by turnover. Volume on the Australian market can be skewed by massive activity in one stock such as occurred last year with GPT. Turnover, however, is a more stable artefact.

A divergence on the Yellow Line (5-Day MA) suggests a fall may be coming. The divergence relates to the highs posted on the XAO around 23-25 March and the current high.

A clear break by the Green 21-Day MA (which is currently very steep) below its uptrend line would constitute a sell signal. A clear break by the 21-Day MA below the zero line would be a sell short signal.

I hope that is clear.

Cheers

Red

Market Comments: 10/3/2010

Another pause in proceedings today. The candle is a small doji - which indicates indecision and, at the top of a rally, sometimes precedes a fall in the market.

Is that likely? I could easily be wrong, but I don't think so.

The market is still not overbought with the Daily RSI at 63.7. Any significant retracement is likely to occur with the RSI around the 70 level.

The Advance/Decline Line has now reached above the October high while the XAO is still a little below that. So we have a positive divergence suggesting the XAO will go higher.

I haven't put up this chart, but the UpVolume/DownVolume Line now exceeds the January high - an even stronger divergence.

The On Balance Volume has also exceeded the January high. (Chart not shown.)

50-Leaders and Small Ordinaries were both up 0.1% today - so sentiment regarding risk was evenly balanced - congruent with a flat day.

The XAO chart has broken above the upsloping wedge and the shall down trend line from January. That's a bullish development providing support under the XAO.

So, I think this market is going higher. We might have another day or two of consolidation before the next move up - but that's where I think it's going.

If we get a big black candle tomorrow, then all bets on the upside get cancelled. That would complete the reversal pattern hinted at by today's small range doji.

Best of luck - I hope you've been on the long side of this very good run.

Cheers

Red

market Comments: 9/3/2010

Today was an excrutiatingly slow day, with the XAO down initially by 17 points. Then, like clockwork, at 11.00 a.m. the index headed upwards to finish up 9.7 points or 0.2%.

Surprisingly, volume was good - about 1.3billion shares on the XAO.

I still can't see that this is any more than the pause that refreshes. There's a small divergence on the MACD Histogram - but nothing else seems to be threatening. The RSI is still fine.

As far as sentiment goes - the 50-Leaders was up 0.3% and the Small Ordinaries up 0.2% (on par with the XAO). So there's nothing in that.

A/D Ratio was mildly positive at 1.1. While UpVol/DownVol was better at 1.4.

This morning the Ozzie Dollar was at 0.908 and is currently at 0.909. So that's supportive of a consolidation rather than a reversal.

Overnight, the Industrial Metals were down a bit at 0.3% which (combined with a weaker Dow) probably caused a little profit taking in the Materials Sector. The Materials Sector finished the day down 0.6%.

Looking at the Intra-day chart, the RSI and Williams %R haven't been below their mid-lines since Monday of last week. A break by the RSI below 50 might see a reversal occurring, but, until that happens, there's not too much to worry about even in the short term.

So - until we see a break of the uptrend line on the Daily Chart - it's steady as she goes.

Cheers

Red

Gold ETF, 8/3/2010

The Gold ETF suffered a reversal today. It broke below the shor-term uptrend line from seven days ago.

On the Gold:XAO ratio chart, the chart line has broken below the 13-Day MA but is still within the symmetrical triangle.

Gold ETF is still on the Watch List - be patient - watch and wait.

A positive move by the Gold ETF would be a negative for the general market.

Market Comments: 8/3/2010

Another strong day on the market with the XAO up almost one percent. Other than the fact that it's been up seven days in a row, there's no real sign of the market reversing.

Volume today was about 1.2billion shares traded - just a little down on Friday. Given that Victoria had a public holiday today, that figure is very strong.

Overhead resistance is still strong which might slow the market down.

The RSI still shows no divergence from price and is still well below the overbought level of 70. So there's still room for the market to move up without getting nervous about it.

The A/D Line is strong and showing no sign of divergence. That's a big positive.

Small Ordinaries was up 1.5% while the 50-Leaders was up 0.7%. So Risk Taking Sentiment was supportive and not indicating a chance of a fall.

I'll be doing more number crunching later tonight, but I can't imagine anything will crop up to change these comments.

So ... it's goodbye from Me and it's goodbye from Him.

Cheers

Red

Gold ETF, 4/3/2010

On the lower chart, the Gold ETF has broken above top trend line of the symmetrical triangle. This may constitute a buy signal.

On the Ratio Chart Gold/XAO, the chart still hasn't broken upwards. The low volatility mentioned yesterday remains the norm.

So - what to do? I'm going to err on the side of caution.

Until the Ratio Chart confirms the Stock Chart, I'll stay out of the market.

Cheers

Red

Market Comments: 4/3/2010

The market was up a little today. XAO +0.3%. Mostly froth and bubble.

Nothing extraordinary pokes its head up and says - hey look at me - sell everything ... or ... mortgage the house and invest it all in the stock market.

The XAO poked further above the 50-Day Moving Average and above the recent 20-Day High. The Daily MACD is above the Zero line. All of that is positive.

The A/D Ratio was positive at 1.3 - firm, but nothing unusual in it. The Ratio of UpVol/DownVol was better at 2.2. That suggests a more positive tone to the market.

The 50-Leaders was up 0.4%. The Small Ordinaries was up 0.3%. So there's nothing in those figures - both more or less in line with the XAO. No particular bias to bullishness or bearishness.

(This is becoming the most boring post I've written for a long time.).

What colour is grey? Do you wear a cardigan and slippers? Do you drive a Volvo?

Boring is good - if you're an investor. When it gets exciting - get worried.

The usual provisos are apparent. Negative divergences are occurring. But the market is up.

I've put up just one chart to ensure you don't fall asleep in your rocking-chair complacency: a ratio chart of Consumer Discretionary to Consumer Staples.

It's looking decidedly bearish. So what? That's one of the key ratios to watch to see if the market is bullish or bearish.

Cheers

Red

Market Comments: 4/3/2010

Gold Report, 4/3/2010

The situation with Gold could be hotting up. So I thought it opportune to update you on the GOLD ETF traded on the Australian Stock Market.

The first chart is a relative strength chart of Gold:XAO. (This is Gold in Ozzie Dollars – investable through the ETF Gold on the Australian Stock Exchange.) For several days Gold has been traveling between the key 55-Day Moving Average and the down trend line from May09. The chart is also showing very little volatility – usually a sign that a big move is coming.

The Gold ETF (second chart) has basically been traveling sideways and this consolidation is now in a clear symmetrical triangle pattern. This can break either way. It is, however, close to a break upwards.

The third chart is a short term chart showing Gold with technical analysis indicators. The stock is above the 150-Day SMA; the MACD is above the Zero line.

The following are all positives for Gold:

• · A break above the 55-Day MA on the Gold/XAO ratio chart,
• · A move by the MACD above the Zero line,
• · Williams %R above its mid-line,
• · RSI above its mid-line.

All I need now is a break above that symmetrical triangle. (This would also constitute a “sell” signal for the XAO.)

Remember – anything can happen in the stock market. Two of my guiding principles are:

• Let your winners run.
• Cut losers quickly.

Cheers

Red

More Disturbing Analysis. 3/3/2010

The top chart shows the 50-Leaders since early in December - just before the Santa Rally took off.

The bottom chart is a ratio chart of Small Ordinaries to the 50-Leaders.OK, in a bullish market we would expect punters to be willing to take on risk. This means that a bias for Small Cap stocks over Large Cap stocks (relatively) would show up in the charts. The ratio of XSO:XFL should rise in a bullish market and fall in a bearish market.

If it doesn't, something is out of whack in the markets. Okey Dokey?

Since the 12th February, the trend in the XSO:XFL chart has been down and is now almost level with the area it was at in early February, when the current uptrend began.

This divergence is concerning. It means that this rally has been the result of punters putting money into the big cap stocks while (relatively) ignoring the small caps.

No wonder I've been describing this rally as "stodgy" - it doesn't have a lot of money going into a broad range of stocks.

Eventually, sooner rather than later, this rally should collapse. Of course, some significant news could come out and punters might get a renewed love for the Small Ordinaries and Risk.

But the probabilities lie with the down side.

Cheers

Red

50-Leaders 3/3/2010

We're getting down to the nitty gritty here.

The high today of the XFL (50 Leaders Index) hit a new 20-Day high.

That sets up a "Turtle Soup Plus One" possibility mentioned earlier tonight.

But ........... we now have a negative divergence on the internals of this Index.

The previous high for the 50-Leaders was on 23/2/2010. The percent of the 50-Leaders at that time above the 10-Day Moving Average was 82%, but the percent of the 50-Leaders above the 10-Day Moving Average today was just 66%. A considerable discrepancy.

This concurs with the negative divergence mentioned earlier tonight regarding the A/D Thrust.

The internal strength of this movement is definitely beginning to weaken.

That doesn't mean the market must fall. But the warning signs are mounting.

Cheers

Red

Market Comments: 3/3/2010

Strong day today on the XAO, nothing extraordinary, up a bit more than 0.7%.

Advancers/Decliners, Up Volume/Down Volume were congruent with a strong day.

Small Ordinaries were stronger (+1.1%) than the 50-Leaders (+0.7%). So punters were willing to take risks today - what you expect on a strong day.

The XAO moved to a new 20-Day High today - setting up a "Turtle Soup Plus One" on the Australian market. To complete the formation, the XAO must move below the low of six days ago - 4731.

The only anomaly I can readily see is between the A/D Thrust and Price on the XAO - a clear negative divergence. The A/D Thrust sometimes acts as a leading Indicator. Looking back to the recent high mark, the XAO topped out on 11/1/2010. The A/D Thrust topped out at the beginning of January 2010 and showed a clear divergence from price by the 11/01/2010. So this market deserves close watching for a major reversal.

The usual Technical Analysis methods, however, are bullish. So - I'm going with the flow until I see some price action which melds with the couple of warning signs I've given.

The candle on the American Dow Jones last night was a doji - which represents indecision. A big black candle tonight would indicate a reversal is in place.

There are plenty of cycles coming due around now - I'm not a great fan of cycle theory - but I always keep an eye on them just in case. It pays to be wary.

Cheers

Red

China: 2/3/2010

In my weekend Report, I made particular note of FXI, the exchange traded fund on the American market consisting of many important Chinese stocks.

Last night, FXI completed an inverse head and shoulders pattern in emphatic fashion. That's a big positive for the Ozzie market.

It is now at the confluence of the 50-Day and 200-Day SMAs.

The way the ETF broke upwards last night should see it continue upwards. The barrier of the two SMAs might slow progress but shouldn't stop it.

This makes an important proviso to my previous post about the American and Australian markets.

Which way?

Anybody's guess.

Cheers

Red

Some Comments on America. 2/3/2010

Looking at the second chart first, everything about this, using conventional Technical Analysis, says the SPX (S&P500) is going higher. Horizontal and vertical resistance has broken to the upside. StochRSI(30) is above the mid-line and headed up indicating that the Index is in an uptrend. The Daily MACD has broken above the Zero line - which is bullish.

So - every trader and their dog should now be long.

OK. Looking at the third chart, the SPX has just hit the 61.8% retracement level - a spot where trends often reverse. One mark against the conventional view - but hardly convincing.

Next, the last twenty-day high was four days ago. This sets up the possibility of a "Turtle Soup Plus One" situation. If the SPX drops below the low of four days ago, 1105, then a retracement of at 2-6 days will probably occur. A retracement of six days would almost certainly break below the low of two days ago - 1086 and that would spark further falls.

What are the odds of the Turtle Soup Plus One setup completing - about 70%. That's not bad odds. 90% would be better. :) but not bad.

Interestingly, the Ozzie market is not as bullish as America. A new 20-Day high has not been created. The XAO has stalled below the 50-Day Moving Average. The daily MACD is still below the Zero line.

Does this lack of confirmation mean anything? The Australian market often pre-empts the American market. So the less than strong performance by Australia today, after a strong performance in America last night, could be a precursor to weakness in America tonight. This may then flow into our market tomorrow.

We shall see.

That's a long story with lots of ifs and buts.

I'll be waiting to see how tonight pans out in America. If it is once again strong, then a test of the January highs is probably on the cards. And we will probably follow.

It's up to you what you do. :) I'm just an old grandfather enjoying my grand-kids and playing around with charts.

Cheers

Red