Friday, March 18, 2011

Saturday Morning Review 19/3/2011



Dow Industrials +0.71%, Dow Transports +0.73%, SP%500 +0.43%, Russell 2000 +1.16%, Nasdaq100 -0.19%.

Those figures looked reasonable until we got to the Nasdaq100. Apple is struggling. It's formed a double top. Not a good sign.

Europe: London +0.39%, France +0.63%, Germany +0.11%.

VXX (ETF based on the VIX - the FEAR INDEX) remains in an uptrend.

The market has had a couple of days Rest and Recreation from its downward plunge. Solid resistance lies ahead around the 12000 area on the Dow Industrials. The Nasdaq100 (and particularly Apple) need to join the party if this market correction is over.

News from the MiddleEast/North Africa, Japan (and whatever other Black Swans might fly overhead) may continue to dominate market direction.

Speaking of Black Swans, China on Friday once again increased reserve requirements of banks. That's the third increase this year. Monetary policy basically has three tools it can use to slow or speed up an economy: reserve requirements of banks, interest rates, and "printing money" (expansion or contraction of the Money Supply through the buying or selling of government securities). So far, China has been using the Bank Reserves requirement to slow their economy. If that doesn't satisfy the monetary masters in China, the next step could be interest rate increases. And that might really put a dampener on world stock markets.

Barry Ritholtz has a weekly summary of macro events in his blog:


Good luck
Red


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