Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Morning Review 3/3/2011



Over night the Dow Industrial was flat +0.07% after seesawing all through the session. Dow Transport up a healthy 0.63%.

S&P500 just a little better than the DJI, +0.16%. The Nasdaq100 up a healthy +0.5% while the small caps (Russell 2000) up similarly, +0.47%.

Europe was down. London -0.35%, France -0.81%, Germany -0.58%.

Gold in Ozzie Dollars over the past 24 Hours was flat -0.09%.

The major Dow Industrial indicators I watch are still in bearish territory. (See chart above).

I'm watching the New York Banking Index closely. It is now in an expanding wedge formation with the base at the 52 area. That's where it finished last night. If that breaks downwards its a highly reliable pattern. And if it breaks, then the general market will probably fall along with it. The expanding wedge formation, even before it breaks, is a fairly good indicator of further falls. (See Bulkowski, Chart Patterns - google it). But a break lower is much more reliable.

This can still go either way, but if 52 breaks decisively, then I think the market will be cactus for a while.

Good luck
Red

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