Monday, February 28, 2011

Morning Review 28/2/2011






Dow Jones Industrial up a solid +0.79%, while the Transport Index was up a supportive +0.48%. Some imbalance there, but not great.

Imbalance in the broader market was evident. S&P500 +0.56%, NASDAQ100 +0.2%, Russell 2000 +0.18%. That's not a good sign.

London -0.12%, France +0.98%, Germany +1.21%. London was the odd one out - probably a result of the fall in HSBC (-4.65%) after announcing a doubling of profit (US$19billion). But that was less than expected. So down it came.

Over the weekend I read innumerable blogs and newsletters. Many proclaimed on the price of oil - all said that oil was going higher, much higher, with one putting a price at US$300 in the near future.

The above chart of Oil shows its on a long-term uptrend. But that channel suggests we've seen the top, for now. $90 looks more likely in the near future. A break through the top of that channel would suggest much higher prices. $120? $150? Who knows. I don't. But, at this stage, I think the odds favour the shorters.

The Dow Industrial chart now faces a serious resistance level - a break of the 13-Day Moving Average would be bullish.

The Australian Dollar is once again heading for the 1.02 resistance area. A break above that would be very bullish for the Ozzie and also for our stock market.

Gold in Oz Dollars was relatively flat in the past 24 Hours.

The Australian market has a bit of catching up to do after being closed in the last hour of yesterday's trading. Apart from London, markets in Europe, America and Asia have gone up strongly since then. So a good opening is almost certain. The All Ords (XAO) closed yesterday at 4924. Next major level of resistance is 4948. That seems more than feasible. After that 4970.

Good luck
Red




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