Market Comments Xmas Eve

Yesterday, the XJO closed almost exactly at the early November closing high.

Today the market fell away and crossed marginally below the uptrend line from early December.

Giving the seasonal difficulties with low volume (early market closing time today) it's difficult to know how serious this fall back is.

However, let's try to over come the seasonal difficulties by upgrading today's volume pro-rata.

Doing that we get a figure of about 1125 Million shares traded. That's a little bit below average. Given that many traders have already gone away on holidays, the volume today was probably significant.

If today's fall was just a test of the trend line, with rises to come, I'd expect low volume on such a test. That seems not to have occurred.

The real test comes on the next day's trading - if there is further selling on significant volume, I think it's All Over Red Rover.

The RSI has marginally fallen below its uptrend line.

The Slow Stochastic hit the overbought level of 80 and fell away. It still has to fall below its signal line.

No major technical damage is done, however, until the XJO falls below the last major low - at4737.

So - over the Xmas period we're left in limbo.

Just forget the markets and enjoy yourself.

Merry Xmas

Lance