Gold Etf as at 16/11/2010

The Gold ETF is back within its trading range, about 130/136. It could be heading back to the 130/131 region.

The top chart shows the ratio of the Gold ETF to the XAO. The Gold ETF has an inverse correlation to the XAO of about -0.7. If the ratio chart goes above the 55-Day MA, that would be a significant positive for Gold, and a significant negative for the XAO. Breaks of this nature are not necessarily major changes in trend. But, major changes in trend have not occurred without such a break. So be wary if the chart breaks above the 55-DSMA.

That chart has been nudging up against the relevant 55-Day SMA for some time. It even, for one day, broke above that Moving Average - but not decisively enough to call it a signal.

We'll continue to monitor this as time goes on.

For the time being, it's a case of close - but no cigar.

Cheers

Red