For many weeks, Ive followed a relatively standard procedure in the Weekly Stock Market Report. Its been a matter of following the template and punching in the changes for the week.
This week Ive changed that - not for the first part of the report but for the latter part.
Pardon me if I express a little hubris. This may be one of the more important reports I have written.
When I began writing this week's report, I expected to follow a slightly bullish theme.
But, the thinking is in the writing. I really don't know what I think until I write it. And as the evidence accumulated, I changed with the thread of the report.
Now, look at the evidence:
- The market is consolidating long, medium and short-term views in the market suggest it could go either way,
- The Ozzie Dollar is strong but at a long-term resistance level,
- Volume is dropping off, often a sign that a market is topping,
- A big speculator is betting this market will fall,
- Negative divergences on Technical Indicators on the copper chart (a consistent leading indicator) suggest the next move is down,
- A negative divergence exists between the Russell 2000 and the Dow. This has also been a consistent leading indicator,
- Short-term, breadth on the 50-Leaders has weakened - a negative.
And Now, (drum roll) ... it is September, historically the weakest month in the year.
The evidence is mounting for a significant turn down by the market.
Despite all that we must let the market show the way.
If this is to follow the historical pattern (down in September), look for:
o a break below the uptrend line from the low in late August
o a break by the MACD below its signal line
o a break by the RSI below its mid-line.
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