We have a long term and medium term upsloping wedge pattern. That's bearish.Today the market tried to escape upwards out of it but fell back almost 2/3 of the early rise. Much of the fall back occurred in the last hour of trade, suggesting institutional selling was the reason. (Retail buyers buying early in the day/institutions selling later in the day = dumbmoney/smartmoney.)
A dark candle tomorrow would confirm the reversal; but until we get that - the trend is still up.
Most of my oddball indicators are still overbought, but a couple are showing a slowing of momentum.
The new 20-Day Highs on the 50-Leaders rarely gets over 20 (out of 50) before a reversal sets in. Yesterday, New Highs hit 20. Today they hit 18. That's not a reversal of the trend, but a slowing of momentum. Momentum must slow before a reversal takes hold.
I could go on about a lot of other statistics - but the chart of the XAO says it all.
I'll be surprised if there's much left in this rally. It could, of course, just consolidate and then head higher. I'm sure the bulls are thinking that way.
I'll sit on the fence. But a break below that uptrend line would make a lot of bears happy.
Cheers
Red
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